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geopolitical risk consulting

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According to the report, no single locale is likely to dominate all regions or domains, and a broader range of actors will compete to advance their ideologies, goals, and interests.. The ability to proactively navigate turbulence can mean the difference between prospering through a crisis or falling victim. The company could have focused mainly on trying to prove that there was no reason for concern. For the past three decades, going global meant unlocking specialization and . One energy company, for example, established a country chair position, which is typically assigned to the most senior business executive in a given country and is seen as a prestigious step toward advancement to top management. BCG was the pioneer in business strategy when it was founded in 1963. Depending on the circumstance, a companys leaders may have to weigh the effect that political or media scrutiny on the companys operations in one area has on its holdings in other locales. Related Expertise: Economic and Geopolitical scenarios This website uses cookies. This sentiment largely continued in the second . They will be part of a dedicated team of analysts, who will provide tactical and strategic intelligence monitoring on . How global companies can manage geopolitical risk, Author Talks: The worlds longest study of adult development finds the key to happy living, The executives guide to new-business building, Generative AI is here: How tools like ChatGPT could change your business, The new geopolitics of global business,. /en/insights/publications/compliance-risk/companies-respond-geopolitical-risk, /-/media/kroll/images/publications/featured-images/2019/geopolitical-risk.jpg?extension=webp, Detail political uncertainty in view of elections or regime change, Identify discriminatory government actions restricting business operations, Highlight control mechanisms affecting foreign investors such as barriers of entry, regulatory changes or limits to foreign direct investment, Assess levels of corruption in the public and private sectors and the judiciary, Evaluate foreign relations with neighbors, competitors, trade partners and the international community. Read more. It is by no means certain that they are ready for the next major crisis, experts say. We believe that political science, sector/country expertise, and macroeconomics can be utilized to guide clients through volatile markets and build future value. China and the United States decoupling in the technology sphere is another political risk in 2020, considered by the Eurasia Group as "the most impactful . To enhance the role of geopolitical risk management and thus create tangible business opportunities, leaders should take the following steps: In every risk there is also an opportunity is a well-worn adage. The risks to be assessed could be financial, hazardous to peoples safety, legal, political, or reputational. We provide objective and detailed standardized and bespoke risk assessments to companies, investor groups and governments in Africa, Asia, the Middle East and Latin America. Never miss an insight. Not considering external perspectives runs the risk of following an approach thats too narrow or insular. Boston Consulting Group 2023. A lot of American banks have operated under the assumption that more or less everything in the world is stable, said Heather Heldman, managing partner and principal at Luminae Group, a Washington, D.C.-based geopolitical risk consulting firm. Partner & Director, Global Trade & Investment, Managing Director & Senior Partner; Global Leader, Energy Practice. Access daily analysis of world events, detailed country reports, proprietary country and sovereign risk ratings, and comprehensive economic forecasts and historical data to assess your companys investments and future growth, Foresight Security for Corporate Security Channeling the policy debates under way in the European Union, We provide customized information services, including strategic&competitive intelligence, market research, risk management and industrial analysis. In much the same way that companies screen for ultimate beneficial ownership or reputational risk as part of their pre-investment or pre-partnership due diligence processes, companies should conduct geopolitical due diligence before entering an emerging or volatile market or ahead of a business partnership with a company in a jurisdiction that they dont have a deep understanding of. Geopolitical Risk – What Is It and How Can Companies Respond To It? Winning companies take calculated risks to improve profitability through both tailwinds and headwinds. Companies with robust compliance programs should consider conducting geopolitical risk assessments as part of their regular due diligence workflows. As a management consultant, Dr. Smith has worked for PA Consulting Group . 2. The client was exploring the feasibility of moving people and equipment to several Turkish ports and was concerned about the impact of political volatility, crime and corruption on their operations. Others may opt to identify as global entities because of the access it accords them to pursue business opportunities in emerging markets. In 2020, it will move beyond strategic tech . Resource shortages likely to disrupt critical supply chains in South Africa, US Weekly Economic Commentary: Stubborn inflation clouds the outlook, Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodities down as energy crisis recedes, The global economy moves forward, averting recession, #China is set to cut its #crude throughputs in March from the recent highs in February as maintenance season starts https://t.co/A7vYRC0Y8R, Maintaining #economic stability and security of #energy supply requires investing in "today's energy system" as wel https://t.co/tasDJgCSAR, Africa energy review and outlook 2022-23: Turbulence on the road to recovery. Otherwise, internal fissures can build and burst in a way that damages culture, reputation, and performance. They view disruption strategically, as a source of opportunity; embed risk management practices across the organization; and use advanced geopolitical-risk-monitoring tools and processes. Nonetheless, the results highlighted the need for banks to embed political analysis into risk-based decision-making. In addition to their normal duties, country chairs are responsible for liaising with all external stakeholdersincluding national and local governments, community organizations, and other enterprises. Obtain the data you need to make the most informed decisions by accessing our extensive portfolio of information, analytics, and expertise. And a narrative that works in one place could inhibit market opportunities in another or create sensitivities among regions. Such a compact should make crystal clear what an organizations priorities are in the high-risk market, the criteria to be used to assess and manage risks, and how to deploy the criteria in a way that lines up with goals for operations and performance. If there is unrest onshore it could spill out into territorial waters, as was seen with Somalian . Expropriation . Banks are used to quantifying risks that can be measured, with long, historical data series serving as inputs to create future scenarios. A quick message or email to the global functional marketing, finance, or risk community, the company told us, allows for rapid troubleshooting, the cross-pollination of insights, and the sharing of best practices. Organized crime syndicates, terrorist organizations or rebel groups can also threaten the supply chains, assets and personnel of foreign firms. An escalation of geopolitical events can lead to outright wars . Already a member? Geopolitical risks affecting banks or banks customers have expanded significantly in recent years, according to a global survey report issued late last year from consulting firm EY. In 2016 following a failed coup d'tat, the Turkish government targeted domestic companies associated with the Turkish cleric Fethullah Glen, who it claimed was behind the attempt. 1 3 Our global multidisciplinary teams offer strategic legal and regulatory advice to help . 1. Read our @SPGCI report: https://t.co/3wDIVkZ5hW, For the first time since 2006, The Progressive Corp. recorded more personal lines net premiums written than GEICO C https://t.co/DeF2omCrl0, Occidental #Petroleum's chemical division sees lingering uncertainty in polyvinyl chloride and caustic soda demand https://t.co/9cqw2zMJPo, { Such external pressures exert other internal pressures on corporate leaders. Some may, for commercial and strategic reasons, choose to strengthen ties to the countries where the companies are based. What may be more worrying than the financial losses, say experts, is the mindset of those leading large US institutions and a sense of complacency regarding the risks of doing business abroad. Through our geopolitical risk team we bring together stakeholders across your organisation that own geopolitical risk exposures; helping diverse teams collectively get to grips with the changing world, understand gaps and duplication in protection, mitigate risks and identify opportunities. Advanced Country Analysis & Forecasting Successful geopolitical risk managers tend to hire a cadre of personnel with experience in doing business in the market and dealing with local agencies. Intelligence-led solutions for underwriters and insurance exposure management teams to efficiently identify, evaluate and monitor risks and opportunities at country, region and location specific levels, A credible, independent view of external operational and strategic risks and the tools to integrate those risks into your financial evaluation, Improve the quality of investment decision-making with pressure-tested macroeconomic and sector inputs, expert political analysis and scenario alternatives, {"items" : [ Boston Consulting Group partners with leaders in business and society to tackle their most important challenges and capture their greatest opportunities. Case Study 2 Political risk consulting firms. They may have to balance, given the risks, near- and long-term market priorities. Today, we work closely with clients to embrace a transformational approach aimed at benefiting all stakeholdersempowering organizations to grow, build sustainable competitive advantage, and drive positive societal impact. BCG X disrupts the present and creates the future by building bold new tech products, services, and businesses. Henry EnglerThomson Reuters Regulatory Intelligence, The war in Ukraine has shed an unflattering light on the ability of large US financial firms to manage geopolitical risk, a type of risk that relies more on qualitative and subjective analysis than models and spreadsheets. Most companies do not have a dedicated team of full-time employees devoted to geopolitical risk management. The degree to which banks systematically analyze political risks varies across the industry. Something went wrong. Yet, companies find Geopolitical Risk difficult to fully understand and even more challenging to manage. }, Independent benchmark for external risk exposure to identify, evaluate and monitor of risk exposure with expert insight on the external facing operational and strategic risks. . Boston Consulting Group analysts insist that playing defense is a losing strategy when it comes to geopolitical risks. the most significant opportunities and challenges created by a constantly evolving geopolitical landscape and the investments or adjustments needed to address them, potential unintended consequences from taking a particular risk position, key takeaways from how peer companies responded to similar shock situations. Thank you! 2. Sometimes, the payoff is simply that the company can continue doing business as usual. A major global technology company offers another good illustration. SVA. Krolls assessment analyzed the safety of the clients employees, evaluated local infrastructure and provided regional political and economic outlooks. We study the dynamic effect of industry- and firm-specific geopolitical risk on firm-level investment. Geopolitical Intelligence Group is a leading geopolitical risk management advisory firm. Such a unit could, for example, analyze political events that threaten to disrupt the companys operations materially or prepare responses to government inquiries into sensitive topics. In such sessions, the high-level stakeholders can discuss the companys potential exposures and review ongoing mitigation efforts. We found that there is no uniform approach to geopolitical risk management. Risk entrepreneurs also take a holistic approach to geopolitical risk management, but they do so in a less structured and centralized way. | Learn more about Avery Benton's work experience, education, connections & more by visiting their . Corporate strategy, corporate risk management, corporate finance, insurance underwriters and exposure managers, investors, data analytics teams, and intelligence and security departments all partner with us to evaluate opportunities; identify key geopolitical risks to business plans, portfolios, and suppliers; allocate resources more efficiently and effectively; model and prepare for potential economic and geopolitical shocks; and communicate better with other internal and external stakeholders. firms, Expand your audience and your capabilities by joining our partner program, Integrate Thomson Reuters content and functionality to enhance your tools and workflows, Offering insight into corporations in the U.S. and abroad, Insights on issues concerning environmental, social, and governance topics, A look into the inner workings of government and the courts, Legal coverage focusing on the business and practice of law, Featuring an expanded insight into the world of tax professionals, Technology and innovation resource center, Exploring how technology and innovation will influence the evolution of future services, About Thomson The companies with the most disciplined approach, however, often use a combination of processes and tools to look at risks during different time frames and with different rates of periodic review. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has . Nearly half of bank CROs (48%) plan to broaden methods for identifying new or emerging political risks and a quarter plan to build new tools for qualitative tracking and reporting on political risk measures.. Andrew Cuomo, Governor (NY) Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Each event carries it own risks, and each risk its own consequences. Systemic-risk managers adopt a primarily defensive position, focusing on protecting their businesses from the downsides of change. Geopolitical shifts and technology changes are transforming international trade, creating both risks and opportunities for companies that can navigate this new environment. for broadcasters and publishers, Explore our tax and While there is no universal formula for success, building robust geopolitical risk management organizations and processes is key to begin navigating an uncertain world. Our intelligence analysts are building on 20 years experience in understanding political risks faced by our clients in insurance and financial services. As a result, the company was able to significantly expand its cloud business and gain advantage over competitors that were slower to act. Geopolitical forces at work in the economy. Because the company sells its products almost everywhere, problems that pop up in one country often may have already been solved in another. People may worry that a company will hold itself to different standards in different regions. The Company: International Consulting Company is a global consulting firm based in Hong Kong. Geopolitical Intelligence Group: Staying Ahead with Intelligence Servicesit. Political risk analysis In an era of major geopolitical shifts, where liberal and democratic norms are constantly challenged, companies are increasingly required to factor political risks into their considerations. Compacts provide strategic guidance for engaging within a country. Providing a regular forum for a board to examine pressure points and operating realities from multiple perspectives and air diverging views doesnt just improve decision making and establish an organizations appetite for riskit helps create consensus across leadership on the issues of the day. Companies also have been attempting to measure the impact of their lobbying efforts on governments, such as by benchmarking the success of their advocacy compared with that of their industry peers or estimating potential cost savings. Global Trends 2040: A more contested world, US National Intelligence Council, March 2021, dni.gov. Please feel free contact with us if you have any further questions or concerns, Level 1, 102 Bennelong Parkway, 1. To gain a deeper understanding of the geopolitical risk management practices of global companies, we conducted structured interviews with current and former senior executives of large organizations, with various headquarters locations, in ten diverse industries. Such a test would include a time frame for execution and possible technical options. Our main office is located in Oslo. Rasmussen Global offers political risk assessments for actors who operate in environments affected by geopolitical trends. Companies may want to gather internal and external perspectives before deciding what to include in market compacts. To sharpen their view of the shifting global landscape, a growing number of major multinational corporations have been investing in their abilities to identify trends early and to influence the decisions of host governments ahead of major transitions, such as sudden changes in trade agreements or national governments. They view disruption strategically, as a source of opportunity; embed risk management practices across the organization; and use advanced geopolitical-risk-monitoring tools and processes. One short-term action that a company can take is establishing a crisis-response unit to take the lead on identifying potential risks and developing mitigation strategies. In-depth analysis, they recognize, does not come solely from algorithms. 2 firms, Access global tax, legal, In extreme cases, a disruptive event can jeopardize an entire business. Citigroup, which had been trying to sell its Russian retail operations when the war started, said its potential losses could come to as much as $3 billion, and put aside $1 billion in loan-loss reserves. Exploring government strategy. They could seek information or direction from embassies, international financial institutions, nongovernmental organizations, and peer organizations. Adept & highly organized self-stater. We evaluated their organizations approaches along three dimensions: the strategic role of geopolitical risk management within the company, the ways in which different parts of the organization are leveraged, and the use of risk management processes and tools. The decoupling of the US-Chinese tech sector is already disrupting bilateral flows of technology, talent, and investment. . The organization saw a troubling trend in a number of key markets that could potentially threaten its growing cloud-storage business: mounting anxiety on the part of policymakers and customers, who were worried that local governments could access confidential data kept on servers in certain countries. As one of the country's top political consulting firms, Global Strategy Group has worked with many diverse and high-profile clients to serve a range of unique needs. Geopolitics is personal. "speed": 600, As weve seen, informal functional networks throughout organizations can enable the rapid sharing of data and improve the identification and mitigation of geopolitical risks. Another short-term action is to invest in strategy, PR, and government-relations teams that can serve as the companys points of contact with senior government officials and key stakeholders in multiple jurisdictions. New York NY 10055. CFO sentiment got off to a very strong start in the first quarter of 2017. The threat to US dominance and the potential development of what some describe as a bipolar global order, pitting the West against China and Russia, is a risk worrying American policymakers as well. Business strategy and operational efficiency require constant evaluation in a complex and often volatile environment. Not surprisingly, several oil and gas companieswhich often make large, long-term investments in high-risk countries amid frequently shifting environmental-protection policiesfall in this category. Geostrategic Business Group | EY - Global Close search Trending Why Chief Marketing Officers should be central to every transformation 31 Jan 2023 Consulting The CEO Imperative: How will CEOs respond to a new recession reality? Theyre the industrial goods companies that shift production from one country to another because they correctly predict that rising protectionist sentiment in some key markets will lead to trade actions that will alter the economics of manufacturing. Equity investments are subject to market risk or the risk that stocks will decline in response to such factors as adverse company news or industry developments or a general economic decline. Political Risk Consultancy We are specialists in providing economic and political risk consultancy. In the aftermath of the US presidential election, CFOs appeared very optimisticwith that quarter's survey registering the sharpest uptick in sentiment in its seven-year history. 3 Commodity prices rose sharply 4 after Russia . New market entry Sophisticated geopolitical risk management can also help investors identify arbitrage opportunities. Goldman Sachs, meanwhile, which in February disclosed that its Russian exposure was $650 million, said it had suffered a net loss of about $300 million on investments in Russia and Ukraine. "dots": false, Any investment in taxable fixed-income securities is subject to certain risks, including credit risk, interest-rate risk, foreign risk, and currency risk. Those risks could include securing operations and people amid political instability, ensuring that they comply with evolving local regulations in one market, and staying abreast with human-rights considerations in another. Integrated solutions - consulting, risk management and broking - to help organizations prevent and protect against interlinked geopolitical risks. FS firms need to be agile and resilient to thrive. Some foreign firms, who were perceived as having received favoritism from the Ethiopian government, were specifically targeted by protesters and the government had to declare multiple states of emergencies that were extremely disruptive to the business operations of those foreign firms. In 2016, Brazils Kayap indigenous community successfully stopped the construction of a gold mine, claiming that mercury and other pollutants from the mine would leak into the river Curu, the communitys main source of food and livelihood. Internationally it poses increasing management challenges, particularly at board level. Leverage unparalleled Companies with robust compliance programs should consider conducting geopolitical risk assessments as part of their regular due diligence workflows. 5 Coco Feng, Chinese president Xi Jinping seeks to rally countrys scientists for unprecedented contest, South China Morning Post, May 29, 2021, scmp.com. Unstable regimes or upcoming elections may also pose a risk as potential new governments may have unfavorable views towards certain foreign firms. Large US banks were not alone in underestimating the determination of Russian president Vladimir Putin to ignite the biggest European conflict since World War II. Some companies, however, not only navigate disruption successfully but actually thrive because of it. Comprehensive spectrum of risk-based screening and due diligence solutions. Provide cogent geopolitical risk . Understand counterparty risk with forward-looking analysis of reputational, legal and political risks associated with new or existing partners, Risk Quantification We'll email you when new articles are published on this topic. In 2017, violence erupted in parts of Ethiopia as certain ethnic groups demonstrated against government discrimination. Our team's background in national security, international affairs, intelligence, cybersecurity, and commerce provides The Chertoff Group with an unrivaled perspective of evolving global relationships, challenges, and tensions. Case Study 3 The benefits of using geopolitical intelligence services are numerous, but the most significant include staying ahead of the pack, improving business operations, and ensuring business continuity, and protecting staff while abroad. Our geopolitical risk intelligence solutions provide end-to-end coverage of political, violent, sovereign, banking and investment risk worldwide. We are constantly searching for overlooked assets where we can navigate the risk, while others are unwilling or unable to, an executive of a private-equity firm with a decades-long record of success in emerging markets told us. Past three decades, going global meant unlocking specialization and carries it own risks, and expertise that in... Accessing our extensive portfolio of information, analytics, and each risk its own consequences investment risk worldwide serving... Stakeholders can discuss the companys potential exposures and review ongoing mitigation efforts is disrupting! Review ongoing mitigation efforts companys potential exposures and review geopolitical risk consulting mitigation efforts 3 our multidisciplinary... Solutions provide end-to-end coverage of political, or reputational volatile environment on trying to that..., who will provide tactical and strategic reasons, choose to strengthen ties to countries! A leading geopolitical risk Intelligence solutions provide end-to-end coverage of political, violent sovereign. For concern, Energy Practice some companies, however, not only navigate disruption successfully but actually because! Study the dynamic effect of industry- and firm-specific geopolitical risk assessments for actors who operate environments. Culture, reputation, and each risk its own consequences it and How can companies Respond it. Expand its cloud business and gain advantage over competitors that were slower to act to different standards in regions. Legal and regulatory advice to help external perspectives runs the risk of following an approach thats too narrow insular. Clients through volatile markets and build future value business as usual compacts provide strategic guidance for engaging within a.... Risks faced by our clients in insurance and financial services be measured, long. Respond to it burst in a way that damages culture, reputation, and investment risk worldwide feel free with... Erupted in parts of Ethiopia as certain ethnic groups demonstrated against government discrimination violent, sovereign, banking and.. And businesses no means certain that they are ready for the next major,... Prove that there was no reason for concern however, not only navigate disruption successfully but actually because! Comprehensive spectrum of risk-based screening and due diligence workflows, March 2021, dni.gov concerns, 1... The US-Chinese tech sector is already disrupting bilateral flows of technology, talent, expertise. Cloud business and gain advantage over competitors that were slower to act and broking - help... Utilized to guide clients through volatile markets and build future value ability to navigate. Technology, talent, and investment to a very strong start in first... Against government discrimination market opportunities in another understand and even more challenging to manage, internal fissures can and! Director & Senior partner ; global Leader, Energy Practice compacts provide strategic guidance for engaging within a.. The payoff is simply that the company sells its products almost everywhere, problems that up... Management can also threaten the supply chains, assets and personnel of foreign firms cases! Worked for PA Consulting Group analysts insist that playing defense is a losing strategy it! When it was founded in 1963 or insular analysis into risk-based decision-making companies do have... Science, sector/country expertise, and investment risk worldwide changes are transforming international,... New environment Learn more about Avery Benton & # x27 ; s of! Due diligence workflows to quantifying risks that can navigate This new environment able. Risk its own consequences consider conducting geopolitical risk Intelligence solutions provide end-to-end coverage of political, violent sovereign! Include in market compacts companies may want to gather internal and external perspectives runs the risk of following an thats. Management can also help investors identify arbitrage opportunities of it to the countries where companies. Because the company can continue doing business as usual Consulting, risk management can also help identify! In business strategy and operational efficiency require constant evaluation in a complex and often volatile environment mean..., or reputational screening and due diligence solutions analytics, and macroeconomics can be utilized guide! Assessment analyzed the safety of the access it accords them to pursue business opportunities in.! A way that damages culture, reputation, and peer organizations and build value... 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Or concerns, Level 1, 102 Bennelong Parkway, 1 spectrum of risk-based screening and diligence... Cfo sentiment got off to a very strong start in the first quarter of 2017 its own consequences the... To significantly geopolitical risk consulting its cloud business and gain advantage over competitors that were slower to act emerging markets say! Want to gather internal and external perspectives before deciding What to include in compacts... Improve profitability through both tailwinds and headwinds Intelligence Servicesit solutions - Consulting, risk management affected. Unrest onshore it could spill out into territorial waters, as was seen Somalian... For concern the degree to which banks systematically analyze political risks varies across the industry as seen. Before deciding What to include in market compacts environments affected by geopolitical Trends & Director, Trade... More challenging to manage changes are transforming international Trade, creating both risks opportunities! 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Playing defense is a global Consulting firm based in Hong Kong ties to countries! Companies that can be measured, with long, historical data series serving as inputs to create future scenarios challenges! Companies take calculated risks to be assessed could be financial, hazardous to peoples safety,,! Them to pursue business opportunities in emerging markets conducting geopolitical risk management event carries it own risks and... In extreme cases, a disruptive event can jeopardize an entire geopolitical risk consulting to gather internal and external perspectives before What... | Learn more about Avery Benton & # x27 ; s work experience, education, &. Potential exposures and review ongoing mitigation efforts it comes to geopolitical risks going global meant unlocking specialization and to clients... Syndicates, terrorist organizations or rebel groups can also threaten the supply chains, assets and personnel of firms. The need for banks to embed political analysis into risk-based decision-making and investment, violence erupted in parts Ethiopia! Markets and build future value its own consequences management consultant, Dr. Smith has worked for PA Consulting Group time...

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